Antara keyakinan jika tersalah urus Maut - PRN Melaka 

Barisan Nasional - BN melancarkan jentera Pilihan Raya Negeri Melaka semalam (27/10/21).  Hampir 5,000 orang dikatakan hadir. Hasilnya pada keesokan harinya Pejabat Kesihatan Kepong mengenakan kompaun RM 10,000 kerana gagal mematuhi Prosedur Operasi Standard (SOP) Fasa 4 Pelan Pemulihan Negara (PPN) ketika melancarkan jentera bagi Pilihan Raya Negeri Melaka.

Sebelum itu orang ramai yang mengikuti pelancaran itu secara atas talian, ramai yang tidak puas hati kerana ada pelanggaran terhadap SOP. Adakah jumlah kompaun yang dikenakan itu  akan memberi peringatan dan tidak akan berulang lagi kesalahan yang sama. Sebelum itu, Kementerian Kesihatan menguatkuasakan larangan aktiviti perhimpunan atau majlis sosial berkaitan dengan Pilihan raya Melaka termasuk pelancaran jentera bermula 24 Oktober sehingga 27 November depan. 

Yang Jelas Barisan Nasional telah memukul "gendang perang." Mereka akan mengerah seluruh pelusuk Malaysia tenaga-tenaga bagi membantu Pilihan Raya Negeri Melaka ini.  Berdasarkan pengalaman kejayaan Pilihan Kecil yang diadakan sebelum ini dan Pilihan Raya Negeri Sabah, Zahid Hamidi sebagai Pengerusi Barisan Nasional menyatakan keyakinan beliau bahawa satu perubahan luar biasa akan berlaku dalam Pilihan Raya Negeri Melaka ini.

Keyakinan Zahid ini berasaskan keyakinan bahawa menurut kaji selidik yang dilakukan oleh pihaknya, rata-rata responden menyebut bahawa berlaku penyesalan apabila membuat penolakan calon BN pada PRU-14.  Justeru beliau yakin trend di Melaka pada PRU-14 akan berubah dan akan kembali menyokong Barisan Nasional demi kestabilan politik dan keharmonian negeri berkenaan.

Zahid juga berkata Barisan Nasional akan melakukan perubahan besar dengan meletakan calon-calon baru dan muda pada Pilihan Raya Melaka bulan depan. Calon mesti ada sifat wali iaitu winnable (menang), acceptance (diterima) dan likeable(disukai).

Beliau menjelaskan sifat wali yang beliau maksudkan ialah seorang yang mempunyai ilmu yang boleh diterima oleh semua agama, kaum dan keturunan di Melaka.

Dalam ucapan dalam majlis yang sama, Timbalan Pengerusi BN, Mohamad Hasan juga Timbalan Presiden UMNO mensifatkan Pilihan Raya Negeri (PRN) Melaka adalah cermin bagi PRU-15 nanti, ianya adalah ukuran prestasi yang bertembung antara 'ajal dan maut' jika tidak diurus dengan baik maut menanti.

"PRN Melaka amat penting kepada parti kita, ia ukuran prestasi untuk hadapi PRU15, bertembung antara 'ajal dan maut'.

"Jika tidak betul urus, maut menanti," katanya ketika berucap pada pelancaran Jentera Pilihan Raya BN bagi PRN Melaka malam tadi.

Bukan nak tubuh kerajaan Melayu Islam'

Dalam pada itu, Mohamad berkata Melaka adalah kubu kuat Umno dan ramai mahu melihat parti itu kecundang dalam pilihan raya negeri itu.

"Orang nak lihat kita kecundang di Melaka, banyak orang nak kuburkan kita di Melaka.

"Kita lihat siapa yang nak ditalkinkan dan dikuburkan di Melaka," katanya lagi.

Bekas menteri besar Negeri Sembilan itu turut mengajak rakan komponen BN supaya bergerak sebagai satu pasukan, sambil mengingatkan hasrat gabungan itu bukan untuk menubuhkan kerajaan 'Melayu dan Islam'.

"Kita bukan nak tubuh kerajaan Melayu, bukan kerajaan Islam, kita nak tubuh kerajaan BN yang berbilang bangsa," tambahnya.

 

Struktur  Hampir sama dan Gerakan mengalas tanggung jawab berat. 

Sekiranya kesefahaman pembahagian kerusi antara UMNO dan Bersatu dalam Pilihan Raya Negeri Melaka yang akan diadakan menemui jalan buntu. Sekiranya segala usaha bagi mengikatkan UMNO dan Bersatu yang diusahakan oleh PAS masih lagi gagal. Jalan yang ada sesuatu yang tidak dapat dielakkan ialah pertandingan tiga penjuru.  Pertandingan itu akan melibatkan tiga gabungan atau pakatan iaitu Barisan Nasional - BN, Perikatan Nasional - PN dan Pakatan Harapan- PH.

Setakat 14 Mei 2020, hanya tinggal empat parti komponen dalam BN iaitu UMNO, Persatuan Cina Malaysia (MCA), Kongres India Malaysia (MIC) dan Parti Bersatu Rakyat Sabah (PBRS).

Bagi Pakatan Harapan gabungan itu mempunyai empat parti yang menganggotainya iatu PKR, Amanah, DAP dan Pertubuhan Kinabalu Progresif Bersatu (UPKO).

Manakala  “Parti-parti komponen PN iaitu Parti Pribumi Bersatu Malaysia- Bersatu, Pas dan Parti Gerakan Rakyat Malaysia (Gerakan), Parti Solidariti Tanah Airku (STAR) dan Parti Progresif Sabah (SAPP). 

Agak menarik struktur parti-parti yang menganggotai ketiga-tiga gabungan itu hampir sama. Mempunyai parti paksi yang selalu lebih mirip cenderungan kepada perjuangan Melayu dan parti-parti bukan Melayu yang lebih mengutamakan hasrat pengundi bukan Melayu. 

Misalnya Barisan Nasional - BN, parti paksinya ialah UMNO yang lebih cenderung memperjuangan nasib pengundi Melayu manakala MCA jelas parti orang China dan MIC parti orang India. Dijangka ketua panglima perangnya ialah Datuk Seri Najib Tun Razak, mantan Perdana Menteri Keenam. Panglima yang terpaksa mengangkat bendera putih semasa PRU-14 dulu.

Pakatan Harapan - PH, paksi gabungan itu ialah PKR iaitu yang dipimpin oleh Datuk Seri Anwar Ibrahim yang memulakan kareer politik dalam UMNO pada tahun 1982. Walaupun merupakan parti multietnik tetapi kecenderungan kepada pengundi Melayu agak ketara. Dijangka akan bertanding  di kawasan pengundi orang Melayu majoriti.  DAP juga adalah parti multietnik di mana kecenderungan kepada etnik bukan Melayu adalah agak ketara. Oleh demikian DAP akan bertanding di kawasan Dewan Undangan Negeri di mana etnik China adalah majoriti.   

Bagi Perikatan Nasional - PN, Bersatu adalah paksi gabungan itu.  Gabungan ini akan diketuai oleh General, Tan Sri Muhyiddin Yassin, pernah menjadi timbalan perdana menteri menerusi parti UMNO.  Bersatu dan PAS adalah parti berhaluan Melayu akan bertanding di Dewan Undangan Negeri yang majoritinya pengundinya orang Melayu. Manakala Gerakan akan mengalas cabaran besar menghadapi DAP dan MCA/MIC di kawasan-kawasan Dewan Undangan Negeri yang majoritinya orang China.

Ramai peramal meramalkan yang DAP tidak punyai banyak masalah untuk mengekalkan kesemua kawasan yang dimenanginya.  Pada PRU-14 dulu, DAP bertanding lapan kerusi dan memenangi kesemuanya. 

Di dalam pertarungan ini Gerakan diharapkan oleh Perikatan Nasional untuk memainkan peranan seperti MCA di dalam Barisan Nasional bagi memujuk etnik China mengundi Pakatan Nasional. Sekiranya dibenarnya oleh pengundi bukan Melayu, Gerakan seharusnya memainkan seperti peranan DAP memenangkan Pakatan Harapan dan justeru Gerakan harus membantu kemenangan Perikatan Nasional dengan memenangi dikerusi-kerusi yang bukan Melayu majoriti.  

Dalam pertandingan tiga penjuru ini UMNO akan berentap dengan Bersatu atau PAS dan juga  berentap dengan PKR atau Amanah bagi mendominasikan Dewan Undangan Negeri yang majoriti pengundinya adalah orang Melayu. Makakala DAP yang mewakili Pakatan Harapan akan berdepan dengan MCA/MIC yang mewakili Barisan Nasional  dan juga bertarung dengan Gerakan bagi memenangi hati orang bukan Melayu di Pilihan Raya Negeri Melaka. 

  

Siapakah General di peringkat Pusat 

Semakin jelas Pilihanraya Negeri Melaka akan di adakah pada November ini kecuali mahkamah membuat keputusan sebaliknya. Begitu juga semangkin jelas tiga gabungan besar, Barisan Nasional - BN, Perikatan Nasional - PN dan Pakatan Harapan - PH munkin terpaksa berentap untuk mempamirkan sosok yang paling cucok untuk dipilih oleh rakyat Melaka nanti.

Namun, persoalan yang dimainkan ketika ini adakah UMNO, PAS dan Bersatu berada dalam satu gabungan atau tidak. Tuan Ibrahim Tuan Man memberi pengharapan dengan menyatakan perbincangan  mengelakkan pertembungan tiga penjuru antara PAS, UMNO dan Bersatu Melaka masih diteruskan dan perlu diadakan muafakat dalam soal pembahagian kerusi bagi meminimakan petembungan sekiranya ia berlaku. 

Seperti pasukan bola sepak penting pemilihan pemain dibuat dalam konteks pilihanraya Melaka sangat penting parti-parti mengemukakan calon-calon yang berwibawa dan benar-benar berjiwa rakyat dan meletakan kepentingan rakyat yang paling utama.  Walaupun hasrat ini selalunya dikecewakan tapi hasrat mengunung ini sentiasa ada.

Satu hal yang penting juga  seperti dalam hal pasukan bola sepak ialah pemilihan Jurulatih. Pemilihan jurulatih akan menentukan sesuatu pasukan itu akan menang atau tidak. Begitu juga dalam pilihan raya Melaka ini siapakah yang akan melakar strategi bagi menawan hati rakyat sangat mustahak. Sebab itu mereka yang mendewakan Tun Mahathir  sentiasa mewarakan sosok Dr. Mahathir adalah sosok yang memberi kemenangan kepada PH semasa PRU 14 dulu. Walaupun perkara ini boleh dihujahkan.  

Seperti diduga siapakah yang akan mengetuai serangan dan akan berada di dalam bilik "War Room" di peringkat pusat, sudah pun diketahui. Siapakah pula pengarah "War Room" di peringkat negeri juga boleh dijangka. Manakala pengarah Dewan Undangan Negeri Melaka sukar sedikit untuk diteka pada peringkat ini.

Senario yang ada sekarang yang mengandaikan 3 gabungan tadi iatu BN, PN dan HP akan bertarung yang akan dimeriahkan mungkin dengan penyertaan  beberapa parti lagi dan anggota bebas. 

Adalah jelas sekarang bahawa Datuk Seri Najib sendiri akan mengetuai lakaran strategi UMNO dan BN setelah Datuk Seri Zahid akan berlepas ke Jerman bagi mendapatkan rawatan bagi sakit tulang belakang beliau. Permohonan meminta tarikh pelepasan dan pemulangan pasport ke Singapura telah dipohon  kelulusan  mahkamah dengan menyatakan bahawa beliau telah diamanahkan untuk memabantu jentera parti UMNO menghadapi Plihan Raya Negeri Melaka pada 20 November depan. 

Datuk Seri Najib adalah sosok yang mengetuai Barisan Nasional dalam Pilihan Raya ke 14 lalu menentang bekas ketuanya yang ketika itu mengetuai Pakatan Harapan. Hasilnya seperti yang diketahui pasukan beliau  tewas. Dengan bebekalkan pengalaman dikalahkan di peringkat Pusat atau Persekutuan, Datuk Najib akan mengetuai serangan Barisan Nasional   untuk menawan Melaka yang kalah kepada PH semasa Pilihan Raya Umum Ke 14 dulu. Saya percaya Datuk Seri Najib akan berusaha bersungguh-sungguh supaya nasib malang yang menimba kerajaan Persekutuan tidak menimpa kerajaan negeri Melaka nanti dalam Pilihan Raya Negeri kali ini. 

Di peringkat negeri Melaka kita nampak salah seorang daripada dua toko ini di beri peranan sebagai Leftenan General najib di peringkat negeri Melaka. dua tokoh itu ialah bekas Speaker Negeri Melaka Datuk Seri Ab Rauf Yusof ataupun bekas Ketua Menteri Melaka Datuk Husni Mohamad.

Menarik juga kali ini Datuk Seri Anwar Ibrahim secara automatik sebagai Pengerusi Pakatan Harapan akan mengetuai di peringkat Pakatan Harapan Pusat sebagai penglima perang utama.   Manakalah di peringkat Negeri Melaka telah di warakan Adly Zahari bekas Ketua Menteri semasa pemerintahan Pakatan Harapan di Melaka akan menjadi Leftenan General Datuk Seri Anwar Ibrahim di Melaka. Tugas yang digalas  oleh Datuk Seri Anwar agak berat iaitu meneruskan kejayaan Pakatan Harapan semasa Pilihan Raya Umum ke 14 dulu. Kejayaan ini juga akan memberi sinar harapan yang cerah untuk Pakatan Harapan dapat menguasai Pilihan Raya Umum ke 15 nanti.

Bagi pihak Pakatan Nasional pengerusinya iaitu Tan Sri Muhyuddin Yassin secara automatik juga akan mengalas tanggung jawab  keseluruhannya. Manakalah kemungkinan besar, pengerusi Bersatu negeri Melaka Datuk Mohd Rafiq Naizamohideen.akan menjadi Leftenan Genaral Muhyuddin.

Satu yang menarik Datuk Seri Anwar Ibrahim pernah mengetuai  "Team Wawasan" pada tahun 1993 yang dianggotai oleh Muhyiddin dan Najib dalam Pemilihan UMNO 1993. Datuk Seri Anwar menang sebagai Timbalan Presdien UMNO, Datuk Seri Najib dan Tan Seri Muhiddin menang sebagai naib presiden UMNO.  

Jadi antara mereka ketiga  ini cukup kenal kekuatan dan kelemahan strategi politik masing-masing. Rakyat Melaka akan memilih dan akan menobatkan salah seorang daripada mereka layak di gelar General yang menguasai Negeri Malaka. 

Lessons From The Past - M. Bakri Musa

Lessons From The Past
M. Bakri Musa
www.bakrimusa.com

The coming of Islam, European colonization, and the pursuit of independence – these were transformational events in our culture that resulted in the toppling of the Malay collective coconut shell. In all three instances our culture had served us well in guiding us through uncharted waters.

     Yet, and this seems perverse, in our current tribulations we are far too inclined to blame our culture. I suggest that instead of forever berating and blaming the presumed inadequacies of our culture, it would be far more meaningful and productive if we were to analyze and learn how our culture had dealt with the major events of the past, and apply those insights to our current challenges

.

     If I were to grade the performance of our culture to the three transformational events in our history, I would give an exemplary A-plus for the path we chose towards independence, an A-minus for our reception to the coming of Islam, and a respectable B for our performance during colonization.

     As for that brief period of Japanese Occupation, the fact that we survived was blessing enough. Indeed we did better; we maintained our honor and integrity. Contrary to the fears expressed by the likes of Singapore’s Lee Kuan Yew who wondered out loud whether during a time of famine his Malay neighbors would spare him their last grains of rice, rest assured that Malays willingly shared what little we had even with our once oppressors, as Jean Paget experienced in “A Town Like Alice.”

     A grading exercise is only meaningful if accompanied by some useful comments. I gave a perfect score for our pursuit of independence because it was done right in every respect. We chose the right leaders and they chose the right strategy; it was also the right timing. Our approach was pragmatic, and that proved productive.

     The path we chose reflected the best elements of our culture. It emphasized fairness and generosity, and we put both to good use by working together with the other communities to achieve our goal. We kept our eye on the ultimate prize, and we were willing to make the necessary compromises in order to reach our final destination. We did not consider the give and take of negotiations as a sign of weakness, rather of strength. Timbang menimbang, as we say, of being fair and balanced.

     With such a mindset we were able to work readily with non-Malays towards independence. We did not consider the exercise of collaboration as expedience, a sign of weakness, or the price we had to pay but as a positive endeavor towards a common goal. Had we been consumed with the “purity” of our goals and had been unwilling to compromise, we would still be a British colony today and be left even further behind.

     That said, the path we chose towards independence was far from smooth. There were tough negotiations and last minute snags not only between Malays and non-Malays as represented within the Alliance, but also among Malays, specifically between UMNO (which at that time represented the overwhelming majority of Malays) and the sultans. Ultimately commonsense prevailed, and with a united front within Alliance and with the sultans, the negotiations with the British were successful.

     There were other equally passionate nationalistic leaders. With no disrespect to them, none measured up to Tunku, Tun Razak, and his team in Alliance. Had we hitched our fate on Burhanuddin Al Helmy, another giant of a leader, we would be like Indonesia today; with Malay girls desperate to find work as maids in neighboring countries. I do not question Burhanuddin’s anti-colonialist credentials but his avowed goal was union with Indonesia.

     Had we latched on to Ahmad Boestaman, he would have embraced Chin Peng in a grand gesture of socialistic reconciliation, a strategy so loved by those who think that problems could be solved by simply forgetting or ignoring differences. Sukarno did that with Aidit, leader of the Indonesian Communist Party, and was nearly done in, as was Indonesia.

Chin Peng was also for independence, but his goal was to realize the aspiration of a Greater China as revealed in some ancient maps found in the musty tombs of long-gone emperors. Chin Peng and Burhanuddin were alike in their thinking and strategies; the former, communism and China; the latter, Islam and Indonesia.

     Tunku too tried this reconciliation route, but after meeting Chin Peng at the Baling Peace Talks in December 1955, quickly gave that idea up. Tunku remembered well the basic rule to any negotiation: stick to your principles. He intuitively recognized Chin Peng for what he was and wisely decided that it would not be prudent to share a blanket with a cobra.

     Our culture’s response to the coming of Islam was exemplary in many ways. We saw its innate beauty and evident verity, and embraced the faith enthusiastically. Yet in so doing we did not dismiss or abandon our then existing ways and identity. Our exuberant acceptance of this new faith did not preclude us from continuing our traditional practices and adat (customs). The genius of our ancestors was to creatively harmonize the two, not picking and choosing what we like from each and discarding what we deemed unsuitable, rather the artful fusion of both. We did not become less of a Muslim or Malay in so doing but better human beings and our society the better for it.

     The closest modern equivalent to our exuberant embrace of Islam would be the current Chinese accommodation to capitalism and globalization. Just as our ancestors created their own “Islam with Malay characteristics” as it were, separate from those of the Arab, Persian or Indian variety, likewise today’s China enthusiastically embraces capitalism albeit “with Chinese characteristics,” a unique brand identifiably different from the American, British or Scandinavian strain. It is capitalism nonetheless and has brought unimaginable benefits to the Chinese, just as Islam did to Malays.

     I did not grant top marks to our ancestors’ embracing Islam because in their eagerness they failed to grasp fully its vast universe beyond the spiritual and theological. They did not fully appreciate the tremendous non-religious contributions of the Arabs to the arts and sciences through Islam.

Consequently there were no Malay translations of texts beyond the religious and hikayat (legends). Nor did our ancestors emulate the highly successful trading practices of those early Arabs.

     Our ancestors also failed to appreciate the full breath and diversity of Islamic theological thoughts, or of Islam’s tolerance to dissenting viewpoints, at least in its early years. Our culture’s failure in that arena would handicap us in our subsequent dealings with the inevitable differences in interpretations within our faith. We impute evil motives on those with whom we disagree; we are too eager to label as apostates those who disagree with us.

We became so enamored with those Arab traders and so eager to emulate them that we closed ourselves to other equally valid interpretations and practices of Islam. We let ourselves be colonized mentally in that we would view any other version of Islam as being bida’a, an adulteration of the faith.

     Our embrace of the Arabs could not be more different than our reaction to the Europeans. Our culture was right in recognizing colonization’s inherent evil nature. No human group has a right to subjugate others under any pretext, be it noblesse oblige or the presumption of a supposed “white man’s burden.”

     We should fight evil (and colonization was that) but in doing so we should also recognize our own weaknesses. If we realize that our enemy is overwhelming and that there can be no meaningful or possible way for us to prevail, then we should be prepared to make the necessary accommodations to that harsh reality. There is no need to sacrifice our people needlessly. Life is precious; adapt and live for another day.

     The powers of the colonialists were indeed awesome, and we would be nothing but easy prey had we aggressively resisted. In such instances our first priority should be to ensure our collective survival. With time we could learn from our adversaries and only then perhaps could we build a credible force to challenge them.

     As per the wisdom of our Koran, when we see evil we must use our hands to combat it, meaning, do so physically. Failing that we should use our tongue, that is, voice our disapproval. When even that is not feasible, then we should disapprove of it in our hearts, though that is the path least favored by Allah. Stated differently, we should not senselessly sacrifice our precious lives to a lost cause and that there is infinite human capacity to adjust while remaining true to our faith. We saw that in Stalin’s Soviet Union and elsewhere.

     British colonialism was a formidable force and we could not possibly prevail. We could not challenge it with our hands; we were no match for their guns and cannons. We could voice our disapproval, but their prisons too had infinite capacity. Thus we were left to disapproving it only in our hearts, and we did.

     When it became clear that we were vastly outmatched by colonialism, our people responded in the only way they could. They resorted to using the “weapons of the weak,” borrowing James C. Scott’s words.

October 12th, 2015

Will Today's Refugees Become "the New Palestian"

by Brian Michael Jenkins

Nearly seven decades after Palestinian refugees fled or were forced to leave the portion of the Palestine Mandate that became Israel, those who survive and millions of their descendants officially remain refugees. The unwillingness of the surrounding countries to fully assimilate them perpetuated their refugee status. They were often confined to refugee camps that turned into sprawling slums. These became a continuing source of instability; recruiting reservoirs and armed camps for extremist groups; and in some cases, miniature states within states that defied host government authority. Could the millions of people fleeing the current conflicts in Syria and Iraq become the “new Palestinians”?

The Syrian and Iraqi conflicts have generated far greater numbers of refugees than did Israel's war for independence in 1948 and the aftermath of the 1967 war. About 700,000 people were displaced in 1948, some 30,000 of whom still survive. Another 200,000 left the territory occupied by Israel after the 1967 war, but they and their descendants now number about 5 million, of whom approximately 1.5 million still live in refugee camps. Forced to flee Syria's civil war, some of these Palestinians tragically have become refugees a second time.

The conflicts in Syria and Iraq have generated the greatest volume of refugees since World War II. Caught between the Syrian government's brutal counterinsurgent campaign, which seeks to make life untenable in areas beyond government control, and the equally brutal so-called Islamic State in Iraq and Syria (ISIS), more than 4 million have fled Syria. In addition, nearly 8 million Syrians are internally displaced — they have fled their homes but remain elsewhere in Syria. The total comprises more than half of the entire pre-conflict Syrian population.

Iraq has 3.6 million internally displaced persons. Another 400,000 have left the country. As government forces and pro-government militias, which are mostly Shiite, try to recapture cities held by ISIS, where the population is mostly Sunni, these numbers will grow.

These conflicts have resulted in a total of about 16 million displaced persons
— a figure that will increase. The sectarian and ethnic divisions that authoritarian rulers once kept in check now drive the fighting, making it an existential struggle for all participants. None can imagine surviving under the rule of their foes — they will fight to death. In any case, refugees are unable to return while the fighting continues, as it almost certainly will.

The neighboring countries of Lebanon and Jordan cannot easily absorb the vast numbers of refugees who have fled there. The resources of these countries are limited, and a large population of refugees would change the composition of their societies and the delicate balances that govern their politics. Both Lebanon and Jordan received large numbers of Palestinian refugees, and this resulted in security problems. In 1970, Jordan fought a brief but bloody civil war with the Palestine Liberation Organization, which created its own army and, flouting Jordanian authority, waged a terrorist campaign on Israel, thereby exposing Jordan to condemnation and retaliation.

Turkey, where nearly 2 million Syrian refugees reside, does not want them. Its tolerance may decline further if fighting between government forces and Kurdish separatists escalates even further. Worried about their own stability, the Gulf monarchies have not offered to accept any refugees. Neither will Russia.

The European Union, led by Germany and Sweden, has offered to accept significant numbers: several million over the next five years, although some members of the EU, especially in Eastern Europe, refuse to take any. It is not clear how large a dent this will make in the numbers of Syrian or Iraqi refugees. The flow of refugees to Europe is not only from the Middle East; it includes those trying to cross the Mediterranean from North Africa, fleeing the chaos in Libya, as well as economic refugees from other African countries.

Traffickers have taken advantage of Europe's willingness to take in Syrian refugees by adding others from Afghanistan and Africa. The refugees destroy their citizenship papers, cross the border and claim asylum.

Europe's refugee policies are still under construction. Will the EU simply accept as many as it can of those who reach its borders, turning back the rest once a certain quota is reached? Will governments try to vet those they take in by screening refugees currently registered in camps in Lebanon and Jordan? Or will the West decide eventually that it simply cannot absorb the flow of refugees and move to establish militarily protected enclaves in those countries?

Individuals with professional skills who are fleeing Syria and Iraq will find work and can be easily absorbed, although this represents a major human capital loss for the future of these countries. However, the overwhelming majority of the refugees are young men with minimal education and few skills to offer. They will not readily find employment. There is no evidence, thus far, of armies of jihadist agents or sleepers among the refugees, but as a class, large numbers of young, jobless men coming from violent environments need close attention.

Refugees running from the conflicts in Syria and Iraq pose a threat to the stability of the region and raise security concerns beyond it. This is not an argument against opening doors to refugees, but good intentions alone will not suffice. If the international community is to avoid seeing the emergence of a population of new Palestinians lasting decades into the future, it will have to craft a more coherent approach.

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Brian Michael Jenkins is a senior adviser to the president of the nonprofit, nonpartisan RAND Corporation and author of “How the Current Conflicts Are Shaping the Future of Syria and Iraq.”